2008 Oscar Preview: Best Supporting Actor
Here’s the big problem with this category this year: two of the leading contenders are by absolutely no stretch of the imagination supporting actors. Javier Bardem’s role in No Country for Old Men is clearly the film’s core, and he almost certainly has more screen time than anyone else (it might be close with Josh Brolin, but I’d say Bardem wins.) This is patently not a supporting role. The same goes for Casey Affleck’s performance in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford; you’d have to not even bother watching the movie to mistake Brad Pitt’s Jesse James as the leading man. About 90% of the scenes in this film concern what Robert Ford is doing. The Academy simply blundered on this one – I guess the assumption is that it’s impossible to have Brad Pitt in a movie and not call him the lead.
Anyway, your nominees are:
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Why he might win: Carries the film. Steps out of his brother’s shadow (likely permanently.) Is a promising up-and-comer (and they like giving supporting awards to promising up-and-comers.)
Why he might not win: Is not Javier Bardem.
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Why he might win: The most talked about and best performance of the year, if not the decade. Overshadows every other acting nominee in any category. Kicks more ass than previously thought possible.
Why he might not win: There is absolutely no chance he will not win.
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
Why he might win: The Academy loves him. Charlie Wilson’s War didn’t get much other nomination love. Highly entertaining role.
Why he might not win: Is not Javier Bardem.
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Why he might win: The Academy loves old dudes in supporting roles. Director Sean Penn carries a lot of clout.
Why he might not win: Is not Javier Bardem.
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Why he might win: Incredibly strong performance. Grabbed all the acting attention before No Country came out. Doesn’t have an Oscar yet, and deserves one sometime.
Why he might not win: Is not Javier Bardem.
Sean’s Official Call
Who should win: Javier Bardem.
Who will win: Javier Bardem.
2008 Oscar Preview: Best Supporting Actress
Kind of a mish-mash this year. They hit a bunch of the stereotypical supporting nominee archetypes: the old person who wasn’t in the film all that much, the precocious youngster worth mentioning, the hot actress looking not like a hot actress, the near psychotic professional, and whatever happened in Gone Baby Gone (it’s on my queue, I’ll get to it eventually.) Early buzz is that Amy Ryan is running away with this one, but it might be closer than that.
Your nominees are:
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Why she might win: As demonstrated by the fact that she’s nominated in Best Actress as well (for a swiftly forgotten unnecessary historical sequel that exactly seven people in the world saw,) everyone in Hollywood freakin’ loves her. I’m Not There is popular, and voters might be looking to throw a bone in its direction.
Why she might not win: Her own oversaturation. She’s on every ballot ever; voters may not even be thinking much about her at this point.
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Why she might win: Old woman who slaps around Denzel = gold.
Why she might not win: She was in the movie for like eight minutes, and did very little other than get excited about a house and the aforementioned Denzel-slapping.
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Why she might win: Everyone loves a pre-pubescent supervillain. If Atonement hadn’t come out in the same year as No Country and There Will Be Blood, people would be hailing her as the best villain of the year. Kids do well in these categories.
Why she might not win: Resentment that Atonement won the Golden Globe for no particular reason. Feeling that, after Abigail Breslin last year, we now have a “token child” entry.
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Why she might win: Has won just about every critic’s award in the category. Has incredibly strong buzz. Is all anyone remembers about Gone Baby Gone at this point.
Why she might not win: Despite momentum, failed to grab either the Golden Globe or SAG Award. Stiff competition. Not enough people saw the film.
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Why she might win: Another strong performance in a film full of strong performances. The most empathetic villain in the year of the villain. Incredibly honest performance.
Why she might not win: Hasn’t been doing much winning around the guilds or critic’s awards. Michael Clayton may be entirely overlooked.
Sean’s Official Call
Who Should Win: Saoirse Ronan.
Who Will Win: Toss up. I’ll go with the smart money and say Amy Ryan, but I wouldn’t be surprised in any direction.
-Posted by Sean on 2/19/08 (By the way, I’m getting to those promised globetrotting mini-reviews eventually.)
