Best Actor
Look, I’m going to go ahead and pretend I don’t have to just write “Daniel Day-Lewis” forty-seven times here, but only briefly. Even if the maddeningly strong performance Day-Lewis gave in There Will Be Blood wasn’t arguably the best acting any of us have seen since Monster, the field around him is a little anemic. Clooney just got his award a couple years ago, and Depp will get his eventually – but for something a bit more well-received than Sweeney Todd. Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises) and Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) were completely off the radar before nominations came out – while both were strong performances (and Tommy Lee Jones is having one hell of a year,) they’re just rounding out the category. I’m going to forgo running down the nominees – this one isn’t even a race.
Sean’s Official Call
Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress
The complete opposite. This one couldn’t be more wide open. There’s no clear choice, and strong arguments can be made for just about every contender. Anyone’s guess is as good as mine on this one, but let’s give it a shot. Your nominees are:
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Why she might win: She’s Cate Blanchett. Hollywood could not possibly love her any more.
Why she might not win: Her Supporting nod will get the votes, and this film is widely regarded as confusing and unnecessary. She’s the only one to really fall behind in the pack here.
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Why She Might Win: Strong buzz. Took the SAG and the Golden Globe. Won an Oscar 42 years ago, so has comeback appeal. The film is highly admired by those who saw it.
Why She Might Win: Not everyone saw the film, myself included. When there’s a notably younger candidate (Page) and a notably older candidate, votes are split.
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Why She Might Win: A fantastic, shape-shifting performance. Biopics, inexplicably, are still beloved. Had to have worked harder than any other candidate.
Why She Might Not Win: Foreign-language nominees in the major acting categories are hard to sell – not everyone will have seen the performance, and there are still those who can’t be impressed with acting if they’re reading subtitles (these people are, generally, not that bright.) In any case, a tough sell.
Laura Linney, The Savages
Why She Might Win: Like Blanchett, Linney is a perennially admired performer. The Savages probably won’t get love anywhere else, and Linney could be seen as the representative.
Why She Might Not Win: The buzz around The Savages belonged to Philip Seymour Hoffman, not Linney. This is her third nomination – she’s starting to look like an everyday also-ran. Linney and Blanchett are not really in the race, frankly.
Ellen Page, Juno
Why She Might Win: This is where things get interesting. There was intense buzz about Page as an up-and-coming performer long before Diablo Cody put her clothes back on and wrote a screenplay, and everyone who liked her back when might be inclined to throw a vote her way now. People still have nothing but good to say about Juno, and it’s likely that it’ll take home either this or Best Original Screenplay (but not both.)
Why She Might Not Win: Such a strong performance at such a young age will put “She’ll get her chance later” in people’s minds – if this is what she’s doing now, she’ll be doing truly amazing things later. (Then again, Heath is still fresh in everyone’s minds.) While Juno backlash still has not sunk in publicly, Hollywood may be over the film by now.
Sean’s Official Call
Who Should Win: Marion Cottilard
Who Will Win: Julie Christie
-Posted by Sean on 2/24/08
