It truly looks like this one is still pretty damn close. From a distance, it seems that No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood are in a mad footrace, with Paul Thomas Anderson riding piggyback on the oil-encrusted frame of Daniel-Day Lewis towards the award, while the Coen Brothers madly scramble a yard ahead with Javier Bardem repeatedly shooting the ground behind them, Yosemite Sam-style. Overly facetious metaphors aside, however, the concept of vote-splitting comes up once again here. When two nominees are seen as just about as good as one another (especially when those two are vaguely similar in tone,) it occasionally happens that Academy voters are split right down the middle in their support – allowing a dark horse third nominee to gain a groundswell and edge out the favorites. This year’s dark horse would be better termed a dark pregnant foal. If Day-Lewis and Bardem do stop mid-race to beat the hell out of one another, Juno could well carefully and gingerly walk to the finish line. And then there’s Atonement. While support for the film has dried up more or less entirely, it did take the Golden Globe over both of the heavyweights, and somebody had to vote for it. There’s still a chance that it carries an unexpected silent majority.
Your nominees are:
Atonement
Why it might win: While the Golden Globe winner (for drama) does not often correspond to the Best Picture winner (only once in the past five years – Return of the King,) this one was such a surprise that somebody has to like it. There’s an off chance that some of the quieter voters could defy the buzz and help Atonement pull off a huge upset.
Why it might not win: Support has more or less dried up entirely, at least among mainstream circles. Without a strong lead acting performance, doesn’t stick in viewer’s minds as much as its competitors. Frankly, isn’t nearly as good as the front-runners.
Juno
Why it might win: Feelings toward the little indie that could (a label that it should pay Little Miss Sunshine royalties on) are almost universally positive. In a year with a lot of very, very sad movies, voters might be heartened that a tiny little unexpected love story can still be awfully good. In spite of Coen involvement, it’s widely regarded as the “hip” candidate. And, as mentioned, could win solely on indecision between No Country and There Will Be Blood.
Why it might not win: A light candidate has a chance in a light year, but much less in a year of heavy hitters. Vote splitting might not be as widespread as possible, and if it isn’t, no one else stands a chance. While public backlash is non-existent, industry insiders might be a little sick of the Juno lovefest and all those Kimya Dawson songs they’ve got stuck in their heads now.
Michael Clayton Let’s not even bother.
No Country for Old Men
Why it might win: If you put your ear to the ground, you can feel the early rumblings of a No Country clean sweep. It’s had consistent fervent love since about October, and no one has anything bad to say about it. Even for as long as its been around, it seems to have been gaining momentum.
Why it might not win: Daniel Day-Lewis. While Javier Bardem is just as strong, people have somehow been brainwashed into thinking his was a supporting performance. Day-Lewis not only is a lock for Best Actor, he could tilt the scales in There Will Be Blood’s direction. Don’t forget that Blood was released two months after No Country, leaving it more fresh in the minds of the voters. Also, No Country is damn bleak. It may well have depressed a few voters too much to earn their love.
There Will Be Blood
Why it Might Win: Half the world seemed convinced that it was the Best Picture of the year before it even premiered. I, for one, recall first seeing the preview in front of 3:10 to Yuma and getting angry that I was stuck watching Russell Crowe instead of jumping forward to There Will Be Blood. It mostly held up its reputation after it premiered, and is widely regarded as the most finely crafted film of the year (whether or not that also means the best is debatable.) Also, don’t forget that Magnolia wasn’t even nominated for Best Picture – a win here might be an apology.
Why it Might Not Win: As I said, No Country is starting to look like a juggernaut. While people have been impressed with pretty much every aspect of No Country, the love for There Will Be Blood has been more or less limited to Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Day-Lewis. The Academy also has an occasional aversion to films that are rabidly anti-capitalist. That might not matter, in the end, but it might be enough of a subconscious motivation to give No Country the edge.
Sean’s Official Oscar Predictions 2007
Best Picture (Should and Will Win:) No Country for Old Men
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Best Actress: Julie Christie, Away From Her
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Best Direction: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody, Juno
Best Animated Film: Ratatouille
Best Foreign Language Film: Katyn
Best Documentary: No End in Sight
Best Cinematography: Robert Elswit, There Will be Blood
Best Editing: Juliette Welfing, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Art Direction: Dante Ferretti et al, Sweeney Todd
Best Costume Design: Albert Wolsky, Across the Universe
Best Makeup: Didier Lavergne et al, La Vie en Rose
Best Score: James Newton Howard, Michael Clayton
Best Song: Glen Hansard, “Falling Slowly,” Once
Best Sound: Skip Lievsay et al, No Country for Old Men
Best Sound Editing: Randy Thom et al, Ratatouille
Best Visual Effects: John Knoll, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
In the interest of not guessing randomly any more than necessary, I’m not calling the shorts. Post-show thoughts coming, plus our Top 10s of 2007.
-Posted by Sean on 2/24/08
February 24, 2008 at 2:34 pm
I am so angry that Russell Crowe was not nominated AGAIN, that I’m spitting nails! And no Ridley Scott either!!!!! What is wrong with these people?
February 24, 2008 at 3:03 pm
Luminella, you’re talking to the wrong guy – I think Russell Crowe is pretty much terrible. He was all right in American Gangster, but I feel like he’s mostly just a lazy, apathetic actor.
Ridley Scott could’ve been nominated for Gangster, especially over Tony Gilroy, but the film sort of faded out of everyone’s minds in a hurry.
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